The Great Toilet Paper Shortage of ‘20

In March, Americans frantically prepared for COVID-19 and sheltering-in-place. Many believed our supply chain would falter and leave many products unavailable. Toilet paper became an obsession. How would we survive quarantine without it?

As a result, toilet paper disappeared from the shelves! The sight of empty shelves caused us all to load up any time we saw a few spare rolls. And there kicked off a cycle… no TP? I need TP! Found TP? I’ll take it all. You need TP? Too bad, no TP. Find TP? Buy all the TP! It all ended one Saturday morning with a sprint through Costco, Supermarket Sweep style.

When sociologist Robert K. Merton coined the term “ self-fulfilling prophecy,” I don’t think he had a run on T.P. in mind. But the definition holds, “The prophecy of collapse led to its own fulfillment.”

Self-fulfilling cycles

Like everyone else, VCs are not immune to the effects of self-fulfilling prophecies.

Note: to avoid confusion with the work of the great Robert K. Merton, I’ve defined my framework as self-fulfilling cycles